Autonomous vehicle sales to reach 21 million

19 June, 2016

Leading research group IHS updates its autonomous vehicle sales forecast to 21 million by 2035, US is expected to lead the global trend

Leading research group IHS updates its autonomous vehicle sales forecast to 21 million by 2035, US is expected to lead the trend

NXP concept for autonomous car
NXP concept for autonomous car

Autonomous vehicles are without doubt becoming the hottest trend in the auto industry. It seems that an unseen barrier has been broken, and now, everybody is trying to join the party. Traditional car manufacturers such as Volkswagen, Audi Renault and Toyota, as well as innovative ones such as Tesla have recently announced that autonomous cars will roll out of their factories as soon as 2020. The intensification of the autonomous trend has led leading research group IHS to reconsider their forecasts for autonomous car sales – the research group now estimates that by 2035, autonomous vehicle sales to reach 21 million.

Global sales of autonomous vehicles will reach nearly 600,000 units in 2025. The new forecast reflects a 43 percent compound annual growth rate between 2025 and 2035 – a decade of substantial growth, as driverless and self-driving cars alike are more widely adopted in all key global automotive markets.” Said IHS director of Automotive.

US expected to lead the trend, China to become largest market

According to HIS’s report, the US will lead the world in initial deployment and early adoption of autonomous vehicles, while Japan will simultaneously ramp up industry coordination and investment ahead of the Summer Olympics in Tokyo in 2020.

The biggest for autonomous car is expected to be the Chinese market. IHS forecasts more than   5.7 million vehicles sold in China in 2035 will be equipped with some level of autonomy, the single largest market for the technology, according to analysts. The sheer size of the market, pared with quick technology adaptation patterns ensures that the demand for autonomous mobility will grow.

Europe is expected to maintain industry technology leadership through the premium segment, with a little more than 3 million autonomous vehicles expected to be sold in 2035 and another 1.2 million vehicles in Eastern Europe. In Japan and South Korea collectively, IHS Automotive forecasts indicate nearly 1.2 million vehicles will be enabled with some form of autonomous driving capability by 2035.

Security and regulation still to be tackled

The forward march of the autonomous car is not yet unhindered – some serious issues, mainly regulatory and legal standards and security. Nevertheless, the researchers are confident as for the capability of industry and state to tackle these problem. Many states have actually begun to seriously deal with the legal and ethical aspects of autonomous cars.

“The future fleets of driverless vehicles will provide mobility services for anyone and anything, creating exciting and new opportunities for the automotive industry,” said the director of automotive at IHS. “Increasing competition from the high-tech and other industries is accelerating the auto industry’s autonomous software and cybersecurity development efforts,” he said. Carlson added, “Those who don’t adjust to a changing world will unfortunately be left behind, or will at least face a very different industry.”

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